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getmyjive11
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getmyjive11
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bio79 said...
You cannot get $1.00 per subscriber. You have to make a case for your network and it's price to the cable company and the city itself in order to be added to the lineup. When BTN charges $.25/sub. then the cable price goes up the same for each subscriber to the tier that the network is on. The cable company isn't going to carry that charge.
It will be tough for BTN to get into NYC because it took 2 years for the NFL channel to be placed on Time Warner Cable in NYC. They do not just add networks willy nilly.
GibsoniaPanther ●
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curtismartinfan
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GibsoniaPanther ●
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GibsoniaPanther said...
Actually, the true game changer will be when wireless network capacity increases. Then, they guys running a line to your house won't be the ones who control what you get.
But, like I've said for a while... we're still a good ways away from "internet" broadcasts dominating and wireless is behind that.
curtismartinfan
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curtismartinfan
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curtismartinfan
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curtismartinfan said...
The major wireless providers (Verizon / AT&T) are basically the same people as the Internet people sans Comcast.
Google is the biggest variable in all of this. They have launched their new Fiber optic network in Kansas City and it blows away anything Comcast or Verizon can offer.
This post was edited by rys1324 on 12/18/2012 at 12:02 PM
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rys1324 said...
Another key variable might be how quickly the wireless companies react to expand their data packages. With most people getting 2G/month, wireless streaming won't catch on. Verizon will be in a very interesting position given the amount of money they've sunk into FiOS.
I may be completely wrong on this stuff b/c I'm no expert on it whatsoever. But it just seems like that's the case. I very rarely use ESPN3 on my phone when I'm not on wifi b/c it just takes up too much data.
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GhostOfPitt#40 said...
If you look at this article, MD has 474,059 fans. UL has 300,443 but UK also ads 907,666 for the Louisville market. Lexington is 1hr 20 min away.
So there is a 3x higher concentration of college football interest in Louisville than than Balt/DC. Basically nobody cares about U MD.
Frankly, I am surprised at how low UL's number of fans is. I think they should be higher.
This post was edited by CrazyPaco on 12/18/2012 at 12:26 PM
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GhostOfPitt4014
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getmyjive11 said...
Actually, it will be rather easy for the BTN to get $1.00 from NYC and it has nothing to do with Rutgers or even the Big Ten. It's all about Fox. They own YES and will require that it be bundled with the BTN on the standard tier. It's the Yankees that will ultimately secure the $1.00 per subscriber fee for the BTN.
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CrazyPaco said...
The problem with that is that the Yankees/Nets own 51% of YES, and bundling their network with the BTN (which is worth substantially less) essentially causes a depreciation of their product. Will Fox and the Yankees actually bundle the BTN? I think Fox has an option to take up to 80% after 3 years. Perhaps it will be bundled, but I don't think this is a shoe in as some are predicting.
In any case, the BTN network's only play to get into the tier they want in NYC is to bundle with Yes. There is no way it is getting on that tier in NYC otherwise. Likely not in DC/Baltimore either.
getmyjive11
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getmyjive11
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GhostOfPitt#40 said...
They only took Rutgers and MD to block the ACC from getting PSU to switch. PSU feels like the B1G treated them poorly and many wanted to leave for their eastern roots.
The kicker to blocking a PSU move was that they could capitalize on the TV sets via the basic cable base. This whole thing was a big risk. Sure they will make money in those markets if they get on basic packages, until the rest catch up or the model changes. The B1G has to be banking on the landscape changing in those markets that increases interest in Rutgers & MD or these two will be anchors around the necks of the rest. They already have a few anchors sucking of the teet who are longtime members.
All in all the was Jim Delaney being PO'd that ND turned them down and wanting to make a spiteful move to block a PSU exit.
getmyjive11
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getmyjive11 said...
Yes, we all know that the BTN didn't have a shot to get into the standard tier without YES. Fox absolutely will bundle the YES network with BTN because there is just too much revenue that they would leave on the table if they didn't. The cable companies aren't going to fight YES.
Now DC, I agree with... I think the BTN will be able to get in the standard tier, but it's not going to be $1.00 per subscriber. It will likely be closer to $0.25. I think they are hoping that future expansion, with UVA being likely, will help that. I still think that will be their hardest market to get into.
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CrazyPaco said...
The problem with that is that the Yankees/Nets own 51% of YES, and bundling their network with the BTN (which is worth substantially less) essentially causes a depreciation of their product. Will Fox and the Yankees actually bundle the BTN? I think Fox has an option to take up to 80% after 3 years. Perhaps it will be bundled, but I don't think this is a shoe in as some are predicting.
In any case, the BTN network's only play to get into the tier they want in NYC is to bundle with Yes. There is no way it is getting on that tier in NYC otherwise. Likely not in DC/Baltimore either.
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getmyjive11
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CrazyPaco said...
UVA Isn't moving anywhere though, that is the problem. Neither is UNC. Both are tightly bound together and both are tightly bound to the ACC.
It is yet to be seen if YES will be bundled. Again, the issue is that Yankees/Nets still own 51%. If the Yankees help the BTN get on cable, they are going to be compensated for doing so. It is more complicated than just bundling things together as if it has no effect on the value of the components, particularly important because different groups own parts of all this stuff. If YES is carrying the BTN, that means that the BTN is being overvalued, and YES is being undervalued; particularly the BTN is being overvalued by the amount that YES is being undervalued. The point YES is leaving money on the table (in the form of reducing their carriage fees) so that the BTN can get it (i.e. get increased rates by being picked up on basic cable at an artificially high carriage rate).
I'm going to copy the following example from nzmorange because it isn't worth the time to construct my own example... If: 1. having YES doesn't make the BTN more enjoyable, and visa versa (i.e. they don't add value to each other) 2. they are packaged together 3. YES is worth $1.00 per subscriber in carriage rates 4. and the BTN is worth $0.50 in per subscriber carriage rates
Then: They are worth $1.50 per subscriber in carriage rates, when combined.
If: 1. the BTN demands $0.60 in carriage rates per subscriber 2. and cable companies won't pay more than something is worth
Then: YES' rates will have to be $0.90, so the package's overall price is not mroe than what it is worth
That means that YES is essentially paying the BTN $0.10 per subscriber in lost carriage rates.
Assuming that the BTN doesn't reimburse YES, then YES only makes $0.90, when it could have made $1.00. That $0.90 is then divided between the Yankees and FOX, so the Yankees make $0.45, which $0.05 less than they could have, and FOX makes $0.45, which $0.05 less than they could have. However, the BTN makes $0.60, when it should have made $0.50. That $0.60 is divided between the B1G and FOX, which means that the B1G makes $0.30, which is $0.05 more than it should have made, and FOX makes, $0.30, which is $0.05 more than it should have made.
In the end, the Yankees lose $0.05, FOX loses $0.05, but then they gain $0.05, so they break even, and the B1G gains $0.05. That's why the Yankees are going to want money back from the B1G, but Fox's participation is an accounting wash.
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CBS Sports: two sources say ACC will make more money than B12